AI outlook: EV market to 2034 across Europe, US, China
EV market outlook to 2034 across Europe, the US, and China
AI outlook: EV market to 2034 across Europe, US, China
AI-driven forecast maps EV market growth across Europe, the US, and China to 2034. See when each region hits 50% and how policy and price shape adoption.
2025-09-16T12:46:39+03:00
2025-09-16T12:46:39+03:00
2025-09-16T12:46:39+03:00
Artificial intelligence has attempted to map how the EV market will evolve across the three biggest regions—Europe, the United States, and China. EY’s Mobility Lens Forecaster suggests that by 2034, more than half of new-car registrations in these markets will be electric. Hybrids are expected to retain up to a 30% share until the mid-2030s.China, unsurprisingly, keeps setting the pace: as early as 2025, combined sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids should surpass 50%. By 2033, pure battery-electric models are projected to take more than half the market, and by 2034 the share of new energy vehicles will reach 90%. Even so, by 2050 China’s global share is forecast to slip from 70% to 54% as competitors gather momentum. The arc is clear: early leadership holds, but dominance naturally softens once others scale.Europe, by contrast, is moving more deliberately. A major inflection point is expected only in 2028, when stricter CO2 limits arrive and more affordable models debut. Until then, reduced subsidies and gaps in the charging network are likely to temper growth. EVs are set to claim half the market by 2032 and reach 95% by 2041. Policy pressure and attainable pricing remain the levers that unlock faster adoption.The United States risks falling well behind. Political volatility, underbuilt infrastructure, and steep prices are dragging on progress. According to the forecast, EVs won’t command 50% of the market until 2039. In the meantime, expansion will lean mainly on temporary tax incentives. It’s a stop-start trajectory that mirrors the uncertainty buyers and carmakers still have to navigate.
EV market forecast, Europe EV adoption, US EV market, China EV outlook, hybrids share, 2034 projections, BEV growth, charging infrastructure, CO2 limits, tax incentives, new energy vehicles
2025
Michael Powers
news
EV market outlook to 2034 across Europe, the US, and China
AI-driven forecast maps EV market growth across Europe, the US, and China to 2034. See when each region hits 50% and how policy and price shape adoption.
Michael Powers, Editor
Artificial intelligence has attempted to map how the EV market will evolve across the three biggest regions—Europe, the United States, and China. EY’s Mobility Lens Forecaster suggests that by 2034, more than half of new-car registrations in these markets will be electric. Hybrids are expected to retain up to a 30% share until the mid-2030s.
China, unsurprisingly, keeps setting the pace: as early as 2025, combined sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids should surpass 50%. By 2033, pure battery-electric models are projected to take more than half the market, and by 2034 the share of new energy vehicles will reach 90%. Even so, by 2050 China’s global share is forecast to slip from 70% to 54% as competitors gather momentum. The arc is clear: early leadership holds, but dominance naturally softens once others scale.
Europe, by contrast, is moving more deliberately. A major inflection point is expected only in 2028, when stricter CO2 limits arrive and more affordable models debut. Until then, reduced subsidies and gaps in the charging network are likely to temper growth. EVs are set to claim half the market by 2032 and reach 95% by 2041. Policy pressure and attainable pricing remain the levers that unlock faster adoption.
The United States risks falling well behind. Political volatility, underbuilt infrastructure, and steep prices are dragging on progress. According to the forecast, EVs won’t command 50% of the market until 2039. In the meantime, expansion will lean mainly on temporary tax incentives. It’s a stop-start trajectory that mirrors the uncertainty buyers and carmakers still have to navigate.
