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Volkswagen's 2026 outlook: navigating EV and market hurdles

© B. Naumkin
Explore Volkswagen's 2026 challenges: declining sales in US and China, EV strategy missteps, competition from Chinese brands, and efforts to revamp models.
Michael Powers, Editor

Volkswagen enters 2026 facing an unprecedented set of challenges. While the brand remains Germany's market leader with 560,800 vehicles sold and nearly 20% market share in 2025, its global performance is deteriorating. The company is losing ground in the United States and China, and Porsche has seen a 10% sales decline, with a particularly sharp drop in China where the premium segment is struggling and luxury vehicles face higher taxes.

Competition has intensified dramatically. Chinese brands like BYD, Chery, and Great Wall are growing by 100% or more, offering fast and tech-savvy electric models, leaving Volkswagen playing catch-up. Mistakes in its electric strategy were compounded by the poor performance of its Cariad software division: issues with the ID lineup, including screen freezes and delays launching key models like the Porsche Macan EV, forced the company to turn to external partners, including Rivian and Xpeng.

A wave of changes is also affecting the brand's image. Volkswagen is returning to traditional names: the ID.Golf will replace the ID.3, and the ID.Tiguan will succeed the ID.4. At the same time, the company is betting on an affordable electric ID.Polo priced under €25,000—a niche competitors have already captured.

Despite this, the company isn't abandoning its combustion engine lineup. The updated T-Roc will offer more space, improved driver-assistance systems, and new hybrid powertrains. Analysts suggest this could be a key factor in reviving sales in Europe.

Yet the biggest risks remain external. In the U.S., fallout from the diesel scandal remains unresolved, and quality issues with ID models have led to large-scale recalls. In China, Volkswagen is trying to regain its footing through joint development with Xpeng, but competitors are growing faster.

Experts view 2026 as a critical year for the company. A successful launch of updated models and a coherent electric strategy could reverse the trend, whereas continuing on the current path threatens market share losses in all three key regions.