Volkswagen Chinese models in Europe: import plan, ID. Era 9X and European production

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Volkswagen has moved the idea of shipping its Chinese models to Europe out of the realm of speculation and into a staged plan. First the group intends to import a handful of cars and test demand, then it may shift their assembly to underused European plants. No launch dates or a final model list have been named.

“First export, then check how the market responds. We will pick the segments we enter carefully, and later that could open the door to building such models at those plants,” — said Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume.

The core constraint is already set: cars developed in China must not duplicate the European range. According to Blume, the group will bring them out “only into segments that European products do not cover”, so the ID. Polo, ID. Cross, ID.3 Neo and other locally developed models will keep their positions.

Volkswagen is most likely interested in large electrified cars that the European line-up currently lacks. One possible candidate is the full-size ID. Era 9X with a series hybrid set-up. The 5.2-metre model was developed together with SAIC and can cover up to 340 km before the petrol generator kicks in, as the MIIT filings showed in January, but its deliveries to Europe have not been officially confirmed.

Volkswagen has already been weighing production of China-developed models at European plants. What is new is the sequence: imports, a read on demand and only then possible localisation.

The strategy has two economic effects. Volkswagen would be able to use Chinese development work it has already paid for without building European equivalents from scratch, and at the same time add workload at plants running at roughly three quarters of capacity. That matters all the more against plans to trim the group’s model range by up to 50%, the number of available options and trim levels by up to 75%, and production capacity by 2030 from 12 million to 9 million cars a year.

The first cars will most likely be imports and will stay niche. Volume production in Europe will begin only if large Chinese Volkswagens find buyers without taking sales away from the local line-up.