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Tesla's robotaxi ambitions clash with California's regulatory reality

© A. Krivonosov
New data shows Tesla hasn't conducted autonomous testing in California in 2025, with only 562 miles over ten years. Learn why the company lags behind competitors like Waymo.
Michael Powers, Editor

Elon Musk's claims about Tesla's imminent robotaxi launch in California clash sharply with the facts. New DMV data confirms the company has not conducted a single kilometer of autonomous testing in the state in 2025—marking the sixth consecutive year. This is critical because California's robotaxi approval system is built on a sequence of permits requiring accumulated test miles and proven safety. Tesla remains at the most basic permit level, allowing it to test its system only with a driver behind the wheel.

To advance to full driverless testing, regulators demand a minimum of 50,000 autonomous miles. Tesla has documented just 562 miles over ten years. In comparison, Waymo has reached 13 million test miles, passed seven certification stages, and secured commercial robotaxi approval. This highlights the gap between Tesla's ambitions and the actual readiness of its system.

The paradox deepens against Musk's statements that Tesla is "ready" and merely awaiting regulatory approval. Yet experts note the obstacle isn't the state, but Tesla's lack of sufficient progress. The company hasn't applied for expanded permits with either the DMV or the CPUC, the body regulating commercial transportation. Instead of a true robotaxi, Tesla launched a service in San Francisco with drivers using FSD, but legally, this is just a chauffeur service.

Texas remains the only region where Tesla runs a limited pilot, thanks to more lenient regulations. Meanwhile, the California market—the largest in the U.S.—is key to Tesla's strategy of building a massive robotaxi fleet and selling autonomous driving subscriptions.

Overall, the picture is straightforward: Tesla makes promises but shows little movement toward meeting regulatory requirements, while the gap with market leaders widens.